Life after the midterm elections was never going to be easy for President Barack Obama. In the best-case scenario, he would have watched his influence dwindle steadily as the fight to succeed him heated up. He would have worked to polish his legacy. There would have been work on his “library,” that traditional political-mausoleum project beloved by lame-duck presidents drifting ever closer to the day when they are forgotten but not gone.
But now Obama finds himself pushed toward the sidelines by two potent forces. One is the Republican capture of the Senate as well as major governorships. The other is frustrated congressional Democrats’ increasing focus on what the party’s 2016 nominee – potentially Hillary Clinton – needs from them over the next two years.
The president planned the traditional post-election press conference for 2:50 ET Wednesday afternoon, and planned to host House and Senate leaders of both parties at the White House on Friday.
In a series of interviews over the past week, Obama aides, outside advisers and congressional officials of both parties sketched out how the next two years could look as the president tries to shore up his legacy, hunts for a defining second-term achievement and ponders ways to help the Democrat looking to succeed him at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
The Big Fights
Iran. The conventional wisdom that Obama’s biggest achievements are behind him rankles White House aides, who note that the president could seal a nuclear agreement with Iran late this month that could be as important to his second term as Obamacare was to his first. The core of the deal would be to ensure that Tehran does not acquire a nuclear weapon, defusing a standoff that Obama has warned could lead to war. The two sides have set a Nov. 24 deadline for reaching an agreement, though they could push it back if talks look promising.
White House officials contend that they will not need congressional support to implement the deal in the short term. They argue that executive action would be sufficient to start the gradual process of easing sanctions on Iran in return for compliance with nuclear restrictions. Republicans say their side will subject the deal to close scrutiny and could revive efforts to adopt another round of sanctions triggered if Iran violates the terms of the agreement. It’s not clear whether the White House will have enough Democratic allies to stall that legislation as it has in the past. And in any case, reaching a deal and enforcing it depends heavily on Iran.
Obama’s foreign policy agenda will also include the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is sure to draw heavy Republican criticism given the chaos in Iraq, and his new war in Iraq and Syria against the so-called Islamic State. Senior administration officials expect that conflict to outlast the Obama presidency.
Trade agreements. Republicans and Democrats in Congress say that free trade could provide fertile ground for bipartisan cooperation next year. Obama has pursued an ambitious regional deal formally known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
But Obama wants Congress to give him “trade promotion authority” (formerly known as “fast track”), which would bind lawmakers to a yes-or-no vote on any agreement he makes – no complications from amendments that would force him back to the negotiating table.
Backers of the deal in both parties say that there is enough Democratic and Republican opposition and support that the accord would be seen as a bipartisan achievement.
“It’s the highest-profile thing that we could actually get done,” a senior Democratic Senate aide told Yahoo News of the proposed trade agreement. “It would be a major legacy item for the president.”
It would be. But the problem with this scenario, some administration officials warn, is that it depends on Asian economies being willing to sign off on letting in American goods – hardly a foregone conclusion.
Replacing Eric Holder. On the domestic front, Obama plans to announce his nominee to succeed Attorney General Eric Holder in the “lame-duck” session, with a confirmation vote seen as more likely to come after the new Congress convenes in 2015.
“There’ll be a nomination shortly after the election,” Holder said recently. “My hope would be that the Senate would take up that nomination about the same way that mine was so that by early February, we’d have a new attorney general.”
But calendar is problematic, according to a senior Democratic Senate aide who requested anonymity.
“If we don’t do that (vote on a new attorney general) in the lame duck, then I think the prospects for confirming someone truly progressive are truly bleak,” the aide said. “They will become the personification of government overreach – that is how the Republicans will portray him or her.”
Immigration. Perhaps the most closely watched agenda item in the so-called “lame-duck” session of Congress is immigration. Obama promised earlier this year to take executive action, then opted to hold off until after the election. The question now is whether he pulls the trigger.
The White House has been tight-lipped about the substance. But sources say Obama will slow or even halt deportations of undocumented immigrants who have not otherwise broken U.S. law and/or have family legally in the United States.
The rest of the domestic agenda.
Opportunities for bipartisan action. Confirmation of Obama’s judicial nominees will slow to a trickle, if that, according to Senate aides of both parties. And talk of pushing comprehensive tax reform has dwindled.
The Republican takeover of the Senate won’t suddenly turn the chamber into a legislative powerhouse – and will certainly make it inhospitable to most of Obama’s agenda.
Still, the White House plans to push “items where we continue to believe there is opportunity for cooperation,” like infrastructure spending, or “slightly longer shots,” such as work on early childhood education, a senior Obama aide told Yahoo News.
But the president plans to act on four fronts, the aide said.
First, taking executive actions, like the planned executive order on immigration. Second, implementing existing policies and programs – like pushing governors to expand Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act and enrolling millions more in insurance during the upcoming second open enrollment period for Obamacare. Third, pushing items that have historically enjoyed bipartisan support, like infrastructure spending. Fourth pursuing core Democratic items like action to rein in climate change, or increasing the minimum wage, or comprehensive immigration reform, which may help the party’s 2016 standard-bearer.
Playing defense. The White House expects Republicans now in charge of key committees to open investigations of the executive branch, and to make use of their ability to grill key administration officials. Senate Democratic aides predict that the GOP will also act on long-sought items with bipartisan support, like legislation approving the Keystone XL pipeline.
2016. If Hillary Clinton runs for president, Obama’s efforts will be complicated by “the fastest pivot to a presidential election in modern history,” according to a senior Senate Democratic aide. “Between Senate Republicans and an extremely high-profile Democrat, lots of people are looking to pivot to that conversation, and that knocks the president out of the conversation.”
Obama is expected to help the Democratic nominee in 2016, and some White House aides express hopes that Republicans up for re-election in two years in states the president carried in 2012 will be a moderating influence on the rest of the GOP.
“Very quickly, we’ll be asking ‘what does Hillary think?’ about everything, and asking ‘what does she want to see us do?’” the aide said.
Another Senate Democratic aide put it a bit more starkly. “It’s entirely possible, if Hillary runs, that it will look like the first two years of a Hillary administration.”
